Graph of the week: Chinese slowdown

These past few months markets have been spooked by fears of a crash of the Chinese economy. However, while China is clearly slowing down, the risk of an actual crash remains limited. Chinese bears (pandas) see things too much in black and white…

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China published its Q3 GDP numbers this week, showing 6.9% growth over the Summer months. This is a remarkably strong number in light of all the recent concerns about the state of the Chinese economy. As usual, there are serious doubts about the reliability of these numbers. As such, the Q3 growth number is almost certainly overstated.

To avoid the question marks linked to Chinese data, it is better to look at data that give an indication about the Chinese economy, but that are produced outside of China. Data on Japanese or German exports to China or commodity prices are useful in this respect. At the moment, these data paint a consistent picture of a Chinese economy that is slowing down and is somewhat weaker than the official numbers. Importantly, they do not give any indication that the Chinese economy is crashing.

This is likely to be the story for China for the next few years: further economic slowdown with the authorities making sure that an actual crash is avoided. This implies that concerns about the Chinese economy will continue to linger, but that recent market fears are probably somewhat overdone.

It’s not a black and white story…

Cet article a été rédigé par Bart Van Craeynest

le 23 octobre, 2015 sur China, Emerging Markets, Financial Markets

Après ses études d’économie à l’UFSIA, Bart Van Craeynest a rejoint le secteur financier en tant qu’économiste. Il suit depuis plus de 15 années déjà les évolutions économiques en Belgique et à l’international, et jauge l’impact de ces dernières sur les marchés financiers. Après un long passage chez une grande banque belge, il est devenu économiste en chef d’un organisme financier en 2010. Depuis 2015, Bart Van Craeynest est l’économiste en chef d’Econopolis. Il est co-responsable du scénario économique de la maison et à ce titre étroitement impliqué dans la définition de la stratégie d’investissement.