Graph of the week: Eurozone inflation back below zero

Total inflation in the Eurozone dropped back below zero in September. However, although it makes for nice headlines, talk about deflation or additional stimulus from the ECB are off the mark. The renewed easing of inflation is entirely down to fluctuations in energy prices.

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Total inflation in the Eurozone had been moving up from -0.6% in January to +0.3% in May, but has now slipped back below zero in September. This has triggered some speculation about additional stimulus by the ECB (like an increase in monthly bond purchases). However, this seems based on a misinterpretation of what is happening with inflation at the moment.

The recent moves in inflation have been driven mainly by fluctuations in oil prices, over which the ECB has no control whatsoever. Core inflation, which excludes the impact of fluctuations in energy and food prices, has been stable at about 0.9% for the past five months. This is still uncomfortably low, but not low enough to trigger additional monetary stimulus. Especially as the Eurozone economy is on track for a gradually strengthening recovery.

When energy prices stabilise, overall inflation will move back to about +1%. For now, the ECB is unlikely to react to what are essentially oil-driven fluctuations in inflation.

This article was written by Bart Van Craeynest

on 1 October, 2015

On completion of his studies in economics at UFSIA, Bart Van Craeynest started work as an economist in the financial sector. In this capacity he has been following economic developments in Belgium and internationally and the impact of the latter on the financial markets for over 15 years. Following a long period at a large bank, he became chief economist at a Belgian financial institution in 2010. Bart Van Craeynest has held the position of chief economist at Econopolis since 2015. He is co-responsible for the economic line of the house and hence closely involved in developing the investment strategy.