The economy in 2015 in 5 graphs

5 graphs on the key developments in the world economy in 2015.

The Chinese economy has been slowing down for several years now, and continued to do so in 2015. However, fears about the state of the economy really picked up when the Chinese equity market collapsed during the Summer. The near 50% market correction followed a spectacular equity rally in the previous 12 months. As the market had decoupled from the real economy in this boom-bust move, the correction was not a genuine reflection of the overall state of the Chinese economy. That said, concerns about China are valid, and are likely to remain an ongoing issue.

2015 china

On the back of weaker demand out of China, but also because of supply issues, commodities had another dismal year. The oil price fell to the lowest level since 2004. The fall in commodity prices causes serious problems for a wide range of commodity exporters, with deep recessions in Russia and Brazil as the most obvious examples. On the other hand, there are also winners from lower commodity prices, with consumers in developed markets as the most notable.

2015 oil

After talking about it for quite a long time the Fed finally took its first step towards higher interest rates at its December policy meeting. After seven years of Fed policy rate basically at zero, this was quite a special move. Further rate hikes will follow, but the first phase of the rate hiking cycle shouldn’t impact the real economy too much. That said, it remains to be seen what the end of the era of free money will bring, both for the economy and for financial markets.

2015 fed

While the Fed was talking about the upcoming rate hike for most of the year, the ECB finally launched its own long overdue program of quantitative easing. And in December it even extended the original program. Thanks to the impact of this (through the weakening of the euro), but just as much (or more) thanks to lower commodity prices, the end of severe fiscal tightening and recovering housing markets, the Eurozone economy finally looks set for a decent recovery.

2015 ecb

Even if the economic climate in the Eurozone has been improving of late, there is still substantial divergence throughout the region. One reason for concern is the increasing divergence between Germany and France. While the former is looking at full employment, unemployment in the latter is at a more than 15 year high. Moreover, the economic issues in the Eurozone are being reflected in increasingly difficult political outcomes.

2015 unempl fra-ger

Dit artikel werd geschreven door Bart Van Craeynest

op 22 december, 2015

Bart Van Craeynest ging na zijn studies economie aan UFSIA aan de slag als econoom in de financiële sector. Hij volgt in deze functie al meer dan 15 jaar de Belgische en de internationale economische ontwikkelingen, en de impact hiervan op de financiële markten. Na een langere passage bij een grootbank werd hij in 2010 hoofdeconoom bij een Belgische financiële instelling. Sinds 2015 vervult Bart Van Craeynest bij Econopolis de rol van hoofdeconoom. Hij is medeverantwoordelijk voor de economische lijn van het huis en nauw betrokken bij het uittekenen van de beleggingsstrategie.