Graph of the week: Concerns about the US economy

This week’s highly anticipated Fed meeting yielded another no change decision. The Fed decided it was still not the right time to raise its policy rate for the first time since 2006 because of increased concern about the economic outlook. Recent survey indicators show that such concerns are warranted. …

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Will she, won't she?

All through the Summer, there has been speculation about whether or not the Federal Reserve would raise its policy rate for the first time in more than 9 years in September. This week it’s decision time for Yellen and co. For now, the odds on the first rate seem fairly even.…

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2012 - Straight cold players - 2013

“Life without music would be a mistake” – Friedrich Nietzsche. So before turning over to the 2012 review and 2013 outlook, let’s just have a quick playful stop first by way of introduction : most likely the best ouverture of all ouvertures ever made, 18th century purest form of Rock & Roll avant la lettre : Figaro, a controversial…

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All right listen up everybody, this is the plan...

…and it’s all about plan B, AKA “The Great Escape”. There has been some speculation going on lately on how our monetary policy makers intend to normalize the unusual situation where we are in right now. Some – and probably helicopter Ben included – argue that it can become even more unusual in view of the fact that things…

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US Elections 2012 - The Great Divide

At 5 AM this morning, it became clear that Barack Obama got his democratic legitimacy to carry on for a second term in the White House. It was a close call although most likely the final result in terms of votes might even indicate a landslide victory, depending on swing states such as Ohio, Florida and Virginia (if he holds onto these 3, it is landslide in terms of…

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AAA Maple Leafs

According to the World Economic Forum, Canadian banks have been ranked as the soundest and most safe banks world-wide, this for 5 years in a row. Toronto Dominion Bank, the country’s second largest lender, is the only publicly traded lender in the world which still carries a AAA label from Moody’s (for what that’s worth of course). And yet,…

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The Real Presidential Debate

Independent of the second presidential TV debate and its outcome, we can safely say that most of US elections are won or lost on the economic track record of the incumbent president. Remember “It’s the economy, stupid”. And the last couple of days, a strong attack has been launched on Obama by a set of Romney advisers , ie Glenn Hubbard, Kevin…

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Joint Guest post : Barter & Geo-politics

My dear friend Sideshow Bob sent me a short note which I think deserves some attention. It opens up the discussion on one of the most ancient forms of trading, dating from the days money did not exist. It seems we have a kind of barter revival on our hands. But let’s have Sideshow Bob kicking off the discussion : The Chinese Normal When I opened today’s Financial…

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If it doesn't cause any harm,well,...

…let’s carry on then with the same treatment. This is usually a classic when you have tried everything to cure a patient with standard methods and everything fails. Or even more extreme in the House MD variation on this theme :”If it works, we were right, if he dies it was something else”. But all in all, this was the message delivered…

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A policy with a Twist

The FOMC minutes are out and it seems the committee of US rate setters is no longer unanimous on the issues. An extension of Operation Twist was the compromise outcome and there is a reason for that. And in addition, they softened the language even more by the previous commitment of rates on hold to at least Spring 2014 changing into at least Spring 2015. Note that…

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  1. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @MausMichel @IveWauters @rafliekens @Stijn_Baert @hildevanmieghem @Youssef_Kobo @ZaouguiChams @LuckasV1 Wijze uitspraak!about 3 hours ago
  2. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @IveWauters @rafliekens @Stijn_Baert @MausMichel @hildevanmieghem @Youssef_Kobo @ZaouguiChams @LuckasV1 Connecties… 6 hours ago
  3. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @Youssef_Kobo @Humo Ik gok op Theo Francken?about 8 hours ago
  4. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @GuillaumeVdS Beter in % van het bbp uitdrukken. Een miljard vandaag is niet hetzelfde als een miljard binnen 5 jaar.about 11 hours ago
  5. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @thebandb @ManuelSintubin @de_NVA Ik wilde het niet zeggen.about 11 hours ago