Graph of the week: Chinese slowdown

These past few months markets have been spooked by fears of a crash of the Chinese economy. However, while China is clearly slowing down, the risk of an actual crash remains limited. Chinese bears (pandas) see things too much in black and white……

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Graph of the week: Concerns about the US economy

This week’s highly anticipated Fed meeting yielded another no change decision. The Fed decided it was still not the right time to raise its policy rate for the first time since 2006 because of increased concern about the economic outlook. Recent survey indicators show that such concerns are warranted. …

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Will she, won't she?

All through the Summer, there has been speculation about whether or not the Federal Reserve would raise its policy rate for the first time in more than 9 years in September. This week it’s decision time for Yellen and co. For now, the odds on the first rate seem fairly even.…

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Looking for more stimulus in China

Chinese equity markets took another beating this week with the Shanghai composite down 12% on the week. This took the index back its early July low, erasing the full impact of the earlier policy measures aimed at supporting the market. This leaves the index down 32% from its mid-June high, though still 57% higher than one year ago. To be clear, the Chinese equity…

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My Mood(y's) swings

Well, it’s not exactly Moody’s but more precisely Fitch, sending out messages which are “surprising” to say the least. Remember earlier this week, Fitch came out with pension time bomb study on which we blogged. And in the case of Belgium, it’s a long way to Tipporary with a considerable chance of downgrade towards BBB in case…

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A Primer on the "Magic Mountain"

Davos, setting of the Thomas Mann novel “Der Zauberberg” and sheltering famous people throughout history such as Arthur Conan Doyle, Robert L Stevenson and Ernst Ludwig Kirchner. Today, Davos is mainly famous for being an exclusive ski resort and the annual host of the World Economic Forum. A brief appetizer : This year, the conference of leading…

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Sunday's Pedrocchi's "Light"

Following our adventures in today’s every changing moods in the world of finance, it’s not a bad thing to assess volatility as a measure of risk. And the last couple of months, in the light of the uncertainty surrounding the global business cycle and sovereign debt crisis, it’s always interesting to spot the hot spots, if there are any that…

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It's hard to satisfy us

Unbelievable but now the FED has managed to arrive at the point where they exactly wanted to be, it seems that a growing part of voting members within the FOMC does no longer agree: “Prices of assets such as bonds, agricultural land, and high-yield and leveraged loans are at historically high levels,” George said in a speech last week. “We must not ignore…

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"We need something bolder..."

Let’s put in a USD 550 bio extra of asset purchases, or may be on second thought, let’s double that amount. After 9 consecutive rounds of QE worth JPY 100 trillion – roughly EUR 1,000 bio and some small change – the freshly elected Japanese government headed by Shinzo Abe is looking for something more, let’s say, “challenging”.…

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A short intermezzo by side-show Bob

I have been feeling a lttle bit under the weather but luckily, we can post some stuff with a little help from our friends. Sideshow Bob volunteered and came up with the following short consideration about the impact of Basel III going softer on banks and capital cushion requirements. It also touches the vital aspect of financial markets, being liquidity, and…

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Twitter

  1. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: RT @melanie_korach: Something good often comes from something bad. When something bad happens to u, instead of focusing on the negative, tr…about 10 hours ago
  2. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @Stijn_Baert Maar die vergelijking met werklozen klopt niet: politici hebben dit systeem voor zichzelf uitgedacht.about 10 hours ago
  3. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @Stijn_Baert Is dit niet schizofreen als je het zo stelt? Of hypocriet?about 10 hours ago
  4. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: RT @italbers: Als werknemers zelf beslissen te stoppen met een job, krijgen ze 0 €. Bij politici als JVD is dat 136.000 €. Beseffen politic…about 11 hours ago
  5. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @pat_leader @destandaard Een pareltje? Het niveau van de discussies in de tribunes en op het veld: onbeleefd en met het been vooruit.about 12 hours ago