Air conditioning could boost Belgium's electricity demand by as much as 6.2%

As the Belgian summer nears its end, it's tempting to think of cooler months ahead and forget the challenges that come with rising temperatures. However, despite the coolness of recent summers, data from the Flemish Environment Agency (VMM) clearly indicates a trend of increasing warm and tropical days in Belgium. This raises an important question: if Belgians begin integrating air conditioning (AC) into their homes more extensively, how will this affect power demand?

Source: Chart from Econopolis Strategy. Data from VMM (2023)

 

According to the International Energy Association (IEA), sustained temperatures over 30°C can boost demand for air conditioning by 16%. At Econopolis Strategy, we modeled the potential impact of a rise in AC uptake in Belgium, considering a scenario where extreme heat days become more frequent over time. If 50% of Belgian households were to adopt AC (similar to Italy), the annual electricity demand could increase by up to 2.47 TWh. This figure is significant, representing a substantial portion of the country’s total electricity consumption, which stands at approximately 75 TWh. In the United States air conditioning is far more prevalent—found in 88% of homes—this widespread adoption drives a significant 12% of the country’s total electricity consumption.

Additional power demand in TWh/year. Source: Econopolis Strategy in-house model (2024)

Interestingly, the electricity demand from cooling naturally aligns with sunnier summer weather, which means that the increasing share of solar energy can be more effectively harnessed to meet this demand. This is in stark contrast to the demand for heating during the overcast and less sunny winter months, where reliance on solar energy is less feasible. By capitalizing on this seasonal synergy, the growing need for air conditioning can be met more sustainably.

For further insights into how climate trends might shape our energy future, feel free to reach out to our team at Econopolis. We're here to help you navigate these changes and plan for a more resilient, low-carbon future.