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Operation Mars Bar

All eyes are again focused on central banks and whether or not to push the throttle further. In Europe, one possible scenario which was circulating – and hinted by Mario Draghi during the last rate setting session – involved a potential “negative rate”. The current ECB corridor is 0% (bank deposit rate excess reserves) – 50%…

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Heat maps, Ro-Ro transformation or the great disconnect ?

Heat maps and correlation trades, that was the main theme over the past 6 to 7 years. In the charts above, it marks the dominant presence of red and dark blue spots, indicating various pairs of assets are either heavily negative or positive correlated to each other when it comes to price movements. It became known as Ro-Ro or Risk-on-Risk-off mode of financial…

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FX space billiards

“When you put all the pieces together, my guess is that the next in line will be Australia”, Econoshock 16/04/13 Beggar thy neighbor in full swing. Well, it took about a month to materialize what common sense was prescribing : The BOJ exporting its problems all around the globe and its main trade partners not being amused. Last week, the Australian…

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"Further veering up from what makes sense"

Last October, we already covered some nasty evolutions on the prices of US farmland http://www.econoshock.be/the-heartland-as-good-as-it-gets-folks It seems that today, also the FED is recognizing that extreme easy monetary policy can have its side effects and in some cases can do more harm than good. The February FOMC minutes which have been released…

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Travel Log - Balticum

Late November I missed my appointment in the Baltics but I stated back then that one day I would visit this Nordic hub. And thanks to VOKA Antwerp Chamber I achieved so last week. What did we learn ? First stop Tallinn and a kind of shock occurred in many ways. Not only a very resilient country in the post 2008 era, but also a very specific attitude of people towards people…

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Death by Excel and the power of Mach 10 media

How sad, how sad to celebrate the liberty of media globalization in such a way. I am referring to the recent Rogoff-Reinhart incident or already better known as the R-R-gate. Some people discovered a mistake – an excel programmed calculation error – which puts the R-R thesis of “post crisis slow growth in a debt 90% of GDP environment “on…

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Beggar thy neighbour in full swing...

…and we have our first victim under the category “to export your problems or not, that’s the question” : South Korea. When “Abenomics” was announced for the first time late November, markets already anticipated on a huge Japanese support program in budgetary terms and in monetary terms to create inflation and weaken…

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Housing, a new business cycle shelter ?

A couple of months ago, we already discovered some green shoots in the US economy with some cautious revival signs in the housing sector after 5 years of blood, sweat and tears. Today we see that more and more optimistic surveys point to hope on the good old brick coming to the rescue once again. What’s the state of play as far as US real estate concerned ? When…

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Liquidity carpet bombing

“The risk is we stay in this climate too long and that the carpet bombing of liquidity spurs inflation. Though there are no current signs of consumer price inflation, there is inflation, perhaps a bubble, in some asset classes. Segments of property markets across the globe, for example London, also display symptoms of this. How do we exit this without killing…

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Henry Fonda

Friday and we like to take a detour to a classic movie, a Sidney Lumet 1-acter dating from 1957 starring a host of star actors, not in the least Henry Fonda. At stake is the life of a young Latino and what seems apparently to be a clear cut case for the jury, is not so straightforward for Henry Fonda. He doubts the evidence of the public prosecutor and step by step manages…

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Elsewhere

Balance

At Econopolis it is all about asset management and financial advise in balance.

Twitter

  1. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @FrancisBaeyens Voorlopig weinig impact van de ECB denk ik.19 minutes ago
  2. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @pisiski She is bot from London. She is from Belgium and nobody knows her there. Prejudices are like acid: poisonous.about 3 hours ago
  3. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @DaveSinardet Ik zie weing redenen waarom dit met een andere coalitie in de komende jaren anders zou worden. We moe… https://t.co/nvn1ShyFHLabout 3 hours ago
  4. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @pisiski She did it on her own, that is called perseverance.about 3 hours ago
  5. Geert NoelsGeert Noels said: @JurgenBuyst Oh, we worden echt het balastingsmuseum van de wereld.about 4 hours ago